Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s 31 July reading is set by the day’s high at Pudong Airport, so the market lives or dies on whether the city can push beyond the low-30s Celsius, not on evening heat. Shanghai is climatologically in its hottest stretch at the end of July, with average highs around 32°C and a long-run tendency for oppressive humidity and frequent summer heat spikes.[9][15][16]

The historical frame is mixed. Shanghai has a strong record of extreme heat, including recent multi-day runs above 35°C and an all-time city record of 40.9°C at Xujiahui, while late-July daily highs often sit in the 30–36°C band and can jump higher when the subtropical high dominates.[2][11][14][16] For this specific date, published July normals and day-by-day historical tables suggest 31 July is usually hot but not automatically a peak-day outlier, which helps explain why a 0% yes price implies the market is still treating a very hot outcome as unlikely rather than impossible.[9][15][18]

The main catalysts are the local forecast trend, cloud cover and rainfall timing, plus any shift in the subtropical high or monsoon influence that can either cap the high or allow another surge. Traders should watch for late changes in Shanghai’s official or airport-adjacent forecasts, because a modest difference in peak temperature can move the settlement into a different range, especially if afternoon convection develops after a strong morning build-up. Current weather services already point to a hot, humid late-July profile, but the decisive factor remains whether the airport station gets a clean, dry heating window through the afternoon.[3][4][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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