Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak of China’s hottest summer in 60 years, with meteorological data confirming temperatures from Li Xia to Da Shu are the highest since 1961[9]. At Shanghai Pudong International Airport, July is the hottest month, averaging 87°F (30.6°C), with daily highs climbing from 84°F to 88°F and rarely dropping below 75°F[1][4]. Summer highs regularly exceed 30°C, and the current 0% YES probability for a specific range likely reflects uncertainty about whether today’s conditions—marked by considerable cloudiness, humidity, and an afternoon thunderstorm with a high of 83°F[2]—will breach the upper thresholds needed for that market outcome.

Traders must watch for real-time updates on the thunderstorm’s intensity and duration, as precipitation can suppress peak temperatures despite the extreme seasonal heat. The settlement depends on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for all times on 5 July 2026 at ZSPD, so any delay in data publication or preliminary status flags (as noted by the National Weather Service) could affect resolution timing[5]. With wind speeds increasing to 12.4 mph and solar energy rising to 5.6 kWh in July[1], the key catalyst is whether the afternoon storm clears quickly enough to allow solar heating to push temperatures toward the 95°F ceiling[1]. Monitor Shanghai Daily’s ongoing coverage of this historic heatwave for any sudden shifts in forecast models or official temperature advisories[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.