Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date that historically falls within the city’s peak summer heatwave. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests the market is either mispriced or awaiting a critical catalyst, yet historical data confirms July highs routinely exceed 35°C. Average daily highs at Pudong climb from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C) in early July, rarely dipping below 75°F (24°C) and occasionally reaching 95°F (35°C) or higher[1]. In some years, extreme highs have hit 40°C (104°F), making a 0% probability for any range implausible unless the market is resolving to a non-temperature event[3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for 9 July, as the resolution source is explicitly the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day at Pudong[2]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs between 86°F and 97°F (30°C–36°C) for Shanghai Pudong in July 2026, with overnight lows between 77°F and 81°F (25°C–27°C)[4]. A key dependency is cloud cover: broken clouds on 9 July could suppress temperatures to 33°C (91°F), as seen in recent climate data for 9 July 2026[6]. Watch for sudden announcements on heatwave advisories or precipitation shifts, which could alter the peak temperature significantly before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.