Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific outcome, suggesting the market expects no extreme deviation from the seasonal norm. Historical data frames this expectation: June in Shanghai typically sees average highs of 26°C (79°F), with the hot season formally beginning around 17 June and lasting until mid-September [3]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate daily highs ranging between 26°C and 29°C (80°F to 86°F), with overnight lows between 20°C and 25°C (69°F to 77°F) [1]. Comparable cases from June 2025 show similar stability, with no record-breaking spikes that would justify a high probability for an outlier result [5].

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could alter the peak temperature [market description]. While no specific sports-related line-up news applies to this weather event, the key catalyst is the hourly temperature feed, which updates continuously and may reveal unexpected cooling trends before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June [market description]. Recent current conditions show mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 23°C (73°F) and high humidity at 94%, which may suppress the daily maximum [6]. Any announcement of a heatwave or significant atmospheric change from the National Weather Service would be the primary dependency to watch, though current data suggests a stable, non-extreme day [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.