Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 30 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 33% YES, suggesting the market expects a temperature below the threshold being traded. Historical data for late June in Shanghai shows daily highs typically ranging from 30°C to 35°C on sunny days, with the warmest day of June often occurring on 30 June itself, averaging 29.7°C [3][5]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 at Pudong indicate highs between 80°F and 85°F (approximately 26.7°C to 29.4°C), aligning closely with the 33% probability and implying the threshold likely sits near 30°C [1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and AccuWeather for the Pudong station, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that could suppress peak temperatures [1][4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026, so the final reading must be captured before then. While no specific weather announcements are pending, the constant wind speed of roughly 11.3 mph and gradually decreasing solar energy in late June may limit extreme heat spikes [2]. Any unexpected rain event, which is common in Shanghai’s humid rainy season, would likely push temperatures toward the 25–30°C range, further supporting the current 33% YES probability [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.