Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing a heatwave today, with the Bao’an International Airport recording 88°F (31°C) under sunny skies and 78% humidity, creating a RealFeel® of 104°F. This immediate intensity contrasts sharply with the market’s current 0% probability for any outcome, suggesting a potential mispricing as traders may be overlooking the region’s typical July extremes. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 17 July 2026, meaning the final reading must capture the day’s peak before the deadline.

Historical July data for Shenzhen shows temperatures frequently exceeding 30°C, with 27°C and 28°C being the most probable outcomes according to Polymarket’s frontrunner data, which assigns 70% and 21% probabilities respectively [1]. These figures align with the airport’s current trajectory, where the RealFeel® already surpasses 100°F, indicating that the 0% YES probability likely reflects a misunderstanding of the resolution mechanics rather than actual weather conditions. The market’s focus on 27°C as the leading outcome suggests traders expect a slight dip from today’s peak but still within the high-temperature range typical for mid-July.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Bao’an station, as the resolution source relies on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 17 July [1]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or humidity could alter the peak reading, with the current 20 mph winds and 10% cloud cover currently sustaining the high heat [2]. A key catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff; if temperatures remain stable or rise further before this time, the market’s 0% probability may quickly correct to reflect the high likelihood of outcomes in the 27–28°C range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.