Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s 31 July high will be measured at Bao’an International Airport, and the market resolves on the single warmest reading logged there during the day, not the day’s average or a nearby urban station. July is already Shenzhen’s warmest month on most climate series, with typical highs clustered around 31–32°C and lows around 26–27°C, so the trading question is whether conditions push the airport above that seasonal baseline or leave it in the usual band[2][4][18].

The historical frame is straightforward: late-July Shenzhen usually supports a high in the low 30s, while occasional hotter days can reach the mid-30s. One Shenzhen history page shows a long-run July-31 average high of 31.1°C, with a record high of 36.4°C on the broader July date series, and another July summary puts the month’s average high at 31.1°C with humidity and rainfall remaining significant features[1][2]. That means a 0% “yes” price is hard to justify on climate alone if the market’s “yes” threshold sits anywhere in the high-30s, but it is far less informative if the band starts closer to the low-30s.

The main catalysts are the local weather pattern into the afternoon, especially cloud cover, rain bands and any heat build-up before sea-breeze effects arrive. Traders should watch the hourly forecast, radar trends and any short-range updates for the Shenzhen coast, because heavy cloud or rain can cap the afternoon maximum even in peak summer, while a dry, sunny interval can quickly lift the airport reading towards 33–35°C[2][15][17]. The settlement source is Wunderground for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so late updates at that station matter more than citywide forecasts[11][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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