Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei is currently experiencing a typhoon on 11 July 2026, with heavy rain and winds disrupting the usual summer heatwave pattern. Current forecasts indicate a maximum temperature of 29°C for the day, significantly lower than the typical July peak, which aligns with the market’s 0% probability for outcomes below 22°C and a leading 34% chance for 29°C itself [1][4].

Historically, July is the hottest month at Taipei Songshan Airport, with average highs reaching 33°C (92°F) and frequent peaks above 35°C in clear-sky conditions [3]. However, the 100% market consensus for 33°C on 10 July [2] contrasts sharply with today’s typhoon-driven suppression, framing the current 0% probability for lower ranges as a reaction to immediate weather disruption rather than a long-term climatic shift.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Central Weather Administration, which currently reports 12.0mm of rain in the hour and 93% humidity, alongside Wunderground’s hourly logs for the official settlement figure [7]. The typhoon’s trajectory and any sudden clearing before 12:00Z will be the primary catalysts, as even a brief window of sunshine could push temperatures toward the 30°C outcome, currently priced at 25% [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.