Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on that specific data source rather than summary figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical highs in the 34–37°C range during mid-month, though extreme heat events pushing toward 40°C have occurred with increasing frequency in recent years.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range to select. August 2026 falls within Japan's established summer heat season, when the Bonin High pressure system typically dominates the region. Historical records from Haneda show considerable year-to-year variation; August 2023 peaked at 36.9°C on the 13th, whilst August 2022 reached 35.1°C on the same date. This variability reflects the sensitivity of daily highs to atmospheric patterns that shift substantially across single seasons.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in late July 2026, which will provide the first reliable signals about whether high-pressure systems or monsoon troughs will influence conditions. El Niño or La Niña phases active during summer 2026 could shift baseline temperatures upward or downward by 1–2°C relative to recent decades. The specific resolution methodology—requiring Daily Observations data rather than Day High & Low summaries—means familiarity with Weather Underground's recording practices at Haneda will be essential for accurate settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.