Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution based on the most granular recorded data rather than summary figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily maxima frequently exceeding 35°C during mid-month, though exact readings vary considerably year to year depending on atmospheric pressure systems and moisture levels.

August 2026 sits within a period where long-range climate modelling suggests continued warming trends across East Asia, though seasonal variability remains substantial. Tokyo's August temperatures have ranged from approximately 28°C to 39°C over recent decades, with the 0% crowd probability suggesting traders expect the market's temperature threshold to fall outside typical August ranges—either unusually cool or positioned at an extreme upper bound. Historical August records at Haneda show that temperatures above 37°C occur sporadically but are not exceptional, occurring roughly once every three to five years during the month.

Traders monitoring this market should track tropical cyclone forecasts for late summer 2026, as typhoons can dramatically suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems over the Pacific typically drive sustained heat. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, will provide updated guidance on whether August 2026 is expected to track warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Real-time atmospheric conditions in early August will prove most predictive, as synoptic patterns solidify only days before the settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.