Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime heat on 4 August is the key driver here, with market resolution based on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in Celsius on that date. Current public forecasts cluster around a hot early-August pattern: AccuWeather shows Tokyo’s August highs generally ranging from 82° to 90°F, with an average high of 86°F, while other forecast feeds point to a high around 88°F for Tuesday and mostly cloudy conditions through the day.[1][6][13]

That backdrop matters because August in Tokyo is typically the city’s warmest month, and comparable climate guides put normal highs in the low 30s Celsius, with occasional spikes above 35°C during hotter spells.[17][18][20] If the Haneda reading follows the broader Tokyo forecast, a settlement in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius would be consistent with the most likely range; the 0% YES crowd price implies the market is treating this as effectively impossible, which is at odds with the published forecasts.[1][6][13]

The main catalysts are the intraday temperature curve and any change in cloud cover, rainfall, or onshore flow that could cap the afternoon peak. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecast for Tokyo shows cloudy conditions and scattered showers around the 4–7 August period, which would be the main downside risk to a higher maximum if persistent cloud or rain suppresses heating.[13] AccuWeather’s hourly feed also shows cloudy conditions and only modest precipitation risk in the current window, so traders should watch for revisions in the afternoon forecast rather than the morning temperature alone.[10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.