Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s highest temperature looks set to be a straightforward summer-heat market, with Tokyo’s August climate typically running around **31°C** for average highs and several forecasts pointing to a hot, humid day. AccuWeather’s August outlook puts daily highs in Tokyo mostly between **82°F and 90°F** (about **28°C to 32°C**), while the latest hourly forecast has the city already near **31°C** by late morning, leaving some room for an afternoon peak above the low-30s Celsius mark.[1][2]

The 0% yes price is easier to read if you treat it as a temperature-range market rather than a single-point forecast. Japan Meteorological Agency daily data show how quickly Tokyo can spike in summer, with the city’s broader August pattern regularly producing maximums in the mid-to-high 30s at some observation sites, while Haneda itself is usually a little cooler than inland stations because of its coastal position.[9][13] For this market, that means the key comparison is not with Tokyo city averages alone, but with how hot the airport station gets on the day relative to the usual August band.[13]

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic setup, cloud cover and any afternoon rain or thunder that caps the high before the settlement window closes at noon UTC, which is late evening in Tokyo. Timeanddate’s hourly forecast currently shows a warm, mainly dry day with temperatures around **88°F** at midday and only light wind, but any late-day cloud build-up, showers or a sea-breeze shift could limit the top reading at Haneda before the daily maximum is set.[2] AccuWeather’s month view also keeps Tokyo’s August pattern close to normal, so traders should watch for updated short-range forecasts from the JMA and local airport readings rather than relying on the monthly average alone.[1][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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