Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s reading at Haneda on 6 August is being set against a still-hot early-August pattern, with the Japan Meteorological Agency showing Tokyo’s official city station already posting a 36.5°C high on 1 August and 35.3°C on 2 August, while Haneda itself reached 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August. That is consistent with the broader August baseline: Tokyo’s average high is around 31°C, but it is common for the city to overshoot that level during settled summer spells. [1][11][7]

The 0% YES price implies the crowd is not currently assigning any weight to the relevant temperature band, but the recent range suggests the market can still move quickly if the daytime peak pushes into the mid-30s again. A previous Tokyo temperature market for 1 August resolved at 35°C, showing that single-day outcomes around this part of the scale have been reachable during the current spell rather than only in theoretical extremes. [18][1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the midday-to-afternoon forecast updates and any shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or rain chances before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes, since the result depends on the day’s highest recorded temperature rather than the morning reading. AccuWeather has 6 August centred around 88°F/31°C for Tokyo, while JMA’s daily observations are the actual resolution source, so any last-minute change in the forecast versus the live maximum matters more than earlier expectations. [2][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.