Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for the lowest range sits at 0% YES, reflecting a consensus that temperatures will not dip below 26°C. Historical data for Haneda in July shows average highs near 32°C (87°F), with recent forecasts indicating daily peaks between 29°C and 35°C [1][4]. The market’s tight clustering around 29–31°C, which carries a combined 74% implied probability, aligns with these narrow forecast envelopes just two days out [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that could suppress peak temperatures [2]. Recent news highlights Japan’s record-breaking heat in 2018 and 2023, where temperatures exceeded 41°C, suggesting a high baseline for summer extremes in the region [5][7]. While no specific injury or suspension applies to weather, traders must watch for scheduled rain events or typhoon warnings in the Kanto region, which could act as immediate catalysts for lower readings [10]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, leaving little time for late adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.