Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July 13 marking a critical point in the seasonal temperature curve where daily highs typically climb toward 31–33°C at Haneda Airport. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature outcome suggests traders are either misreading the settlement mechanics or assuming an impossible threshold, as historical data confirms July 13 regularly sees temperatures exceeding 30°C in this location.

Historical records for Haneda show July daily highs increasing from 80°F to 86°F (27–30°C) across the month, rarely exceeding 93°F (34°C) but consistently staying above 25°C overnight [2]. AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast for Haneda projects daily highs between 83°F and 90°F (28–32°C), with an average July high of 86°F (30°C), indicating that any market resolving below 28°C would contradict seasonal norms [1]. The Met Office currently forecasts a maximum of 31–33°C for Haneda in the coming week, reinforcing that extreme heat is the baseline expectation rather than an outlier [3].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast updates, which currently indicate clear skies and temperatures of 31°C for Tokyo, a condition that typically amplifies daytime heating [8]. The primary catalyst is the real-time Wunderground data feed for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station (RJTT), which will settle the market at 12:00Z on July 13; any sudden cloud cover or rain, though unlikely given the clear forecast, would be the only variable capable of suppressing temperatures below the seasonal average [9]. Flight information from JAL notes potential delays on July 13 due to weather, suggesting atmospheric instability could be a factor, though current models favour sustained high heat [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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