Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records from Wunderground. July is Tokyo's peak summer season, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius during mid-month. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final reading will capture morning and early-afternoon conditions only, potentially excluding the hottest hours of the day depending on local timing.

Historical July data from Tokyo shows consistent patterns that frame expectations. Over the past decade, mid-July highs at Haneda have ranged between 31 and 35 degrees Celsius on typical days, with occasional spikes above 36 degrees during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available in this market's resolution categories, or the upper-range thresholds are set significantly above what July typically delivers. Recent summers have seen increased volatility, with 2023 and 2024 producing several days exceeding 35 degrees in mid-July.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or heat dome formation over the Kanto region. Japan Meteorological Agency updates will provide the most reliable guidance on seasonal patterns. The noon UTC settlement time is critical—if Tokyo's peak heating typically occurs in early afternoon local time, the market may capture near-maximum temperatures, whereas earlier settlement would miss the day's warmest readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.