Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July is consistently Tokyo's hottest month, with average daily highs around 32–33°C, though extreme heat events regularly push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point count toward resolution.

Historical precedent shows Tokyo frequently experiences heat waves during late July. In 2019, the city recorded 41.1°C on 23 July, whilst 2022 saw multiple days exceed 35°C throughout the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with the market. Comparable years indicate that outcomes clustering around 33–36°C are most common, though outlier readings above 37°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly severe heat waves.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 28 July, as these typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for Tokyo. Pacific typhoon activity in late July can occasionally suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems intensify heat. Current climate patterns and any official heat warnings issued by Japanese authorities in the fortnight before settlement will signal whether extreme readings are likely. Haneda's urban location means readings may run 1–2°C higher than suburban stations.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.