Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s maximum temperature on 31 July will be set by the hottest reading at Haneda Airport rather than a citywide average, so the market is effectively about whether Tokyo reaches an unusually strong late-July peak before the settling window closes at noon UTC. The crowd is pricing 0% for a yes outcome, which is consistent with a market that expects the day’s high to remain within the more ordinary summer band rather than pushing into an extreme-heat reading.

Recent comparables point in different directions. Tokyo’s late-July norms are broadly in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing forecast highs around 31 July and 1 August in the mid-20s to high-20s °C range for the city[1][3]. But the wider Japanese backdrop has recently been much hotter, with the Japan Meteorological Agency reporting 40°C-plus readings in western Japan and a national record of 41.2°C in Hyogo this week[2][4]. That matters because a strong hot spell can spill east if the high-pressure pattern persists, but Tokyo often sits below the most intense inland extremes.

For traders, the key catalysts are the local forecast evolution, the timing of any heat advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency, and whether Tokyo stays under cloud cover or picks up sea-breeze moderation during the afternoon. The market settles on the highest temperature recorded on the day at Haneda, so the noon UTC cut-off is important: if the day’s peak is delayed into the local afternoon after settlement, it will not count. The immediate watchpoints are the overnight forecast trend, any updated hourly highs for Tokyo from major forecasters, and whether the current Japan-wide heatwave broadens eastward enough to lift Haneda above its recent July baseline[1][2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.