Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026, a date that typically sits within Japan’s rainy season. Historical patterns show early July highs in Tokyo rarely drop below 30°C (86°F), with averages hovering near 31–32°C. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific low range suggests traders expect temperatures to exceed typical thresholds, aligning with the fact that July highs in Tokyo increase by 6°F from 80°F to 86°F, rarely falling below 71°F or exceeding 93°F[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live feed for the day’s peak, as the market resolves solely on the highest recorded temperature at Haneda Airport Station[4]. Recent forecasts for Haneda in July 2026 indicate daily highs between 79°F and 89°F, with an average high of 87°F[3]. Early July remains humid and cloudy due to the tsuyu (rainy season), but temperatures still reach low 30s Celsius, meaning any range below 30°C would be an outlier[5]. Watch for sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain intensity, which could suppress peak temperatures, though such dips are historically uncommon in this period[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.