Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo on 7 July 2026 will see its peak heat recorded at the Haneda Airport Station, a date historically prone to temperatures near the upper end of the month’s range. Long-term averages show daily highs climbing from 80°F to 86°F by mid-July, rarely dipping below 71°F or exceeding 93°F[1]. Recent data from late June 2026 confirms this trend, with the highest temperature reaching 81.8°F on 30 June[5]. Climate records indicate that 7 July often falls within the warmest period, with the month’s peak hitting 29.8°C (85.6°F) around 31 July[6]. Given this consistency, a 0% YES probability for any temperature range below the typical high seems misaligned with historical form.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live updates for the Haneda station as the settlement window closes, since real-time anomalies can shift outcomes unexpectedly[3]. While no major weather disruptions are forecast, sudden cloud cover or rain events could suppress peak temperatures below expected levels. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda suggests highs between 79°F and 89°F, with an average of 87°F[4]. Any deviation from this range—particularly if temperatures fall below 80°F—would warrant immediate reassessment of the market’s implied odds. Watch for official announcements from Japan’s National Weather Service regarding unusual conditions, as these could act as key catalysts for resolution[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.