Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 9, 2026 high temperature is being priced at a 0% chance of hitting any specific range above 23°C, yet historical data and current forecasts suggest a far more plausible outcome near 28–30°C. The average maximum temperature in Tokyo during July is around 28°C, with typical highs ranging between 27°C and 30°C, while the Met Office currently forecasts a maximum daytime temperature of 30°C for Haneda on that date [3][4]. Polymarket’s parallel contract on the highest temperature assigns a 99.4% probability to 30°C, directly contradicting the 0% implied probability in the current market and indicating a likely mispricing [5].

Traders should monitor official releases from the Japan Meteorological Agency and real-time updates from Wunderground, which will determine the final resolution [2]. Recent forecasts show mostly cloudy conditions with a 20–50% chance of precipitation, which could suppress peak temperatures slightly, but the prevailing warm and humid pattern in July typically sustains highs near 28–30°C [4][7]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall intensity before 12:00 UTC on July 9 will be the key catalyst, as even a 1°C deviation from 30°C would invalidate the current 0% pricing and expose a significant arbitrage opportunity [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.