Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius, which will determine the market’s resolution. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the highest range, likely due to typical June variability. Historical data from June 2024 and 2025 at Tokyo International Airport shows highs between 75°F and 83°F (24°C–28°C), with the average June high near 80°F (27°C)[2][4][7]. Recent 15-day data from mid-June 2026 recorded a peak of 82.7°F (28.2°C) on 19 June, indicating the region is already approaching seasonal extremes but not consistently exceeding them[5].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s two-week temperature forecast, issued daily at 14:30 JST, for any sudden shifts toward higher temperatures that could push the 30 June reading into the top range[6]. Wunderground’s live hourly data for Haneda Airport will be the official resolution source, so real-time updates on the morning of 30 June are critical[3]. Additionally, watch for local weather anomalies such as sea breeze suppression or cloud cover changes, which frequently alter Haneda’s daily highs. No recent news reports indicate unusual heatwaves, but the forecast’s next update could provide the catalyst needed to reassess the 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.