Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe extreme heat is unlikely on that specific date. This assessment aligns with recent patterns where a three-day streak of maximum temperatures at or above 34°C ended abruptly when the temperature dropped to just 30.0°C on 25 June in a comparable recent instance[2].

Historical data for June at Pearson shows daily highs typically ranging between 21°C and 35°C, with an average high of 29°C[1][8]. While Environment Canada has issued heat warnings for the Greater Toronto Area during other periods, with temperatures reaching 35.8°C and breaking records set in 1921, such extremes are not guaranteed for every day in the month[4]. The recent drop to 30.0°C after a hot streak indicates that even during warm seasons, significant cooling can occur, framing the current low probability as a rational reflection of weather volatility rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor upcoming Environment Canada forecasts and local weather alerts for the Greater Toronto Area, as sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions can alter temperature trajectories quickly[4]. Specific catalysts include announcements regarding heat warnings, which Environment Canada has previously issued to persist until Tuesday evening, and any changes in precipitation patterns that could suppress daytime highs[4]. With settlement ending on 25 June 2026, the market remains sensitive to real-time data releases from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this event[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.