Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s 3 August maximum at the airport is usually a low-teens Celsius outcome, with long-run August averages clustering around **12–14°C** and typical daily highs near **12°C** at Wellington airport. That puts the market firmly in a cool-season range, so a close near the mid-teens would already be above normal rather than exceptional.[1][8][14]

Comparable August records show limited upside in the month, with published historical ranges pointing to rare spikes rather than sustained warmth: one climate summary shows an August record high of **61°F** (about **16°C**), while another Wellington history page lists an August monthly high of **13.6°C**. For a settlement window that uses the day’s highest reading at Wellington Intl Airport Station, that makes the **0% YES** crowd view understandable if “YES” is tied to a higher temperature band, because the base rate for a materially warm August day is low.[7][1]

The main catalysts are the airport observations themselves: traders will be watching the early-morning synoptic setup, any passing front, and whether sunshine and downslope wind can briefly lift the temperature above the usual August ceiling before the settlement cut-off. The resolution source is Wunderground’s Wellington airport history page, so any late update in the station’s daily high around the midday UTC settlement window is what matters most, not city-centre conditions elsewhere in Wellington.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.