Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome, this figure likely reflects a misunderstanding of the market’s binary framing or a misalignment with the frontrunner on Polymarket, where 12°C holds a 66–68% chance, with 13°C at 23%[1]. Historically, Wellington in July is cool and maritime; average highs hover around 12–14°C, and extreme heat is rare. The only time Wellington (Kelburn) reached its all-time maximum of 30.3°C was during a recent heatwave, but this occurred in summer, not mid-winter July[2]. Such outliers do not shift the baseline for July 1, which typically sees temperatures well below 20°C.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and Wunderground updates as the settlement window approaches, particularly any sudden shifts in southerly wind patterns or cloud cover that could suppress or elevate temperatures[2]. While no specific injury or suspension applies here, the key dependency is the accuracy of the Wunderground station data for Wellington Intl Airport, which must be verified against NIWA’s official records to avoid resolution disputes[2]. A recent NIWA report on heatwave anomalies confirms that winter extremes in Wellington are exceptionally uncommon, reinforcing the low probability of temperatures exceeding 15°C on 1 July[2]. Watch for any pre-settlement announcements regarding data corrections or station recalibrations, as these could alter the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.