Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the International Airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. July falls within Wellington's winter season in the Southern Hemisphere, when daytime maxima typically range between 11–13°C, though occasional warm northerly flows can push temperatures several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the day will fall within normal winter parameters rather than producing an anomalously warm reading.

Historical data from Wellington Airport shows July daily maxima rarely exceed 15°C under typical winter conditions. However, the city experiences occasional warm spells driven by northwesterly wind patterns that can deliver subtropical air masses, occasionally lifting temperatures into the 18–20°C range even mid-winter. The settlement window closes at midday on 14 July, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point count toward resolution, which excludes any afternoon warming that might occur later in the day.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from the New Zealand MetService in the weeks preceding the market's close, particularly any predictions of anomalous warmth or northwesterly flow patterns developing across the lower North Island. Southern Hemisphere winter weather patterns typically stabilise by early July, reducing the likelihood of major forecast revisions closer to the event date. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's historical data for Wellington NZWN station—requires verification that readings match official MetService records, as discrepancies occasionally arise between weather databases.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.