Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Wellington International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe no outcome in the queried range is plausible, yet Polymarket data shows 15°C as the frontrunner at 53%, followed closely by 16°C at 44%, indicating the market is actively pricing mid-range winter temperatures rather than dismissing the event entirely[1].

Historical winter highs in Wellington typically cluster between 13°C and 17°C, aligning with today’s BBC Weather reading of 13°C and southerly winds at 16 mph, which often suppress temperature spikes[2]. The 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the user’s implied range and the actual distribution of outcomes, as comparable July days in recent years have rarely exceeded 18°C, making lower ranges the statistically dominant resolution points[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the day’s peak temperature, and watch for shifts in wind direction or cloud cover that could push readings toward 16°C or higher[1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but sudden changes in the southerly flow or pressure trends—currently rising at 998mb—could alter the final outcome before the 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z settlement window closes[2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.