Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport is typically a cool, wet place in July, with average daytime highs clustered around **10–12°C** and frequent rainfall. Current forecast pages still point to a maximum near **11°C**, which sits close to the long-run July norm and leaves little sign of a heat spike before the settlement window closes.[1][3][4][5]

That makes the crowd’s **0% YES** price understandable: to settle the market in the higher temperature bands, Wellington would need an unusually warm July 24 reading for the airport station, not just a mild afternoon. The historical framing is straightforward: July in Wellington is normally one of the colder, wetter parts of the year, so outcomes above the seasonal average are possible but materially less common than mid-single-digit to low-teens Celsius readings.[1][4][5]

For traders, the key catalyst is the live daily high reported on Wunderground for Wellington Intl Airport, especially any late-morning warming after the early UTC hours and whether wind, cloud cover, or rainfall keeps the airport under the forecasted peak. The main dependency is whether the station’s recorded maximum lands in a band above the prevailing forecast; with settlement tied to the highest temperature *recorded for all times on the day*, even a brief warm-up can matter if skies clear or winds ease.[1][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.