Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at Wellington International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for the 0% YES outcome suggests the market expects temperatures to fall outside the specific band being traded, yet historical data shows July is Wellington’s coldest month, with average highs near 12–14°C (54°F) [3]. Past July records at this station consistently show highs rarely exceeding 16°C, and lows often dipping to 7°C, making extreme warmth highly improbable [3][9]. The 13°C band currently sits at 51% implied probability, reflecting a near coin-flip against ten competing temperature ranges, which aligns with typical mid-winter conditions in the region [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature readings before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July [market description]. While no major weather anomalies are forecast, the presence of south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph and rising pressure (996mb) may suppress daytime warming, reinforcing cooler outcomes [1]. Additionally, watch for any unexpected thunderstorm clusters mentioned in National Weather Service advisories, which could further lower peak temperatures [4]. No recent injury or suspension news applies here, as this is a weather-based market, but traders must treat the 13°C outcome as the most statistically probable given the station’s long-term climate profile [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.