Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The result hinges on the maximum reading at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on 10 August, not the headline daily high shown elsewhere on Weather Underground, so the market is really pricing the day’s *single hottest observation* rather than the usual summary value.[12] With the crowd currently clustering around 29°C and 30°C, the 0% YES price implies traders see little chance of a hotter-than-normal afternoon peak, even though Wuhan’s August climate normally sits in the low-30s and can still deliver sharp spikes when sunshine and light winds coincide.[1][11][14]

Historically, Wuhan’s August temperatures are hot enough that 31°C or 32°C is far from impossible, but the distribution is skewed towards the low- to mid-30s in peak summer, with record August heat well above that level.[3][4][6][11] That means the market’s current pricing is more consistent with a modestly suppressed day than a major cool spell; in practical terms, anything that limits heating early in the day can keep the observed maximum pinned close to 29–30°C, while a clearer, sunnier run-up would quickly reopen the higher bins.[1][13][14]

The key catalysts are the local forecast evolution, cloud cover, rainfall timing and wind, because these determine whether the airport station gets a brief afternoon surge or remains capped by moisture and showers.[1][14][17] Traders should also watch the exact Weather Underground hourly observations through the settlement window, since the market resolves from the Daily Observations table and not the Day High & Low summary, making late-day updates and any discrepancy between the two materially important.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.