Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's summer climate in mid-July typically brings extreme heat and humidity. The city sits in a basin along the Yangtze River, which traps warm, moist air and contributes to it being one of China's "three furnaces" alongside Chongqing and Nanjing. Historical data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport shows July temperatures regularly exceed 35°C, with peaks often reaching 37–39°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or are waiting for seasonal forecasts to solidify before committing capital.

Comparable July days at the airport station reveal consistent patterns: the past decade shows only occasional days failing to breach 35°C, and sustained high-pressure systems typically drive readings into the upper 30s. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records from the Tianhe station, which maintains reliable automated temperature logging. Traders should monitor early-July 2026 weather patterns and any anomalous monsoon activity that might suppress temperatures, though such deviations remain statistically rare for this location and season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, giving traders access to actual recorded data within hours of the market's resolution deadline.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.