Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low for 11 August is usually set by a combination of humid summer air, cloud cover and any lingering showers, which tends to keep the minimum temperature elevated rather than sharply cool. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August normals put the mean minimum for 11 August at 26.7°C, and third-party climatology sources cluster the day’s average low in the high 20s, with typical August night-time minima around 27°C.[2][12]

That historical profile makes a **0% YES** price hard to reconcile with the underlying climate backdrop, because the market resolves on the Observatory’s recorded absolute daily minimum, not a rounded citywide feel. Recent comparable readings have also been warm: on 11 August 2025 the Observatory reported 28.1°C as the minimum by 9 a.m., while other reporting on the same date noted 25.7°C in an exceptionally hot August context elsewhere in the territory.[6][5] For traders, the main drivers are whether overnight showers, cloud cover or a weak trough suppress radiational cooling enough to keep the reading pinned in the upper 20s, versus a brief clearing that allows a lower pre-dawn dip.

The key catalyst is the Hong Kong Observatory’s hourly and daily extracts, which determine settlement once the relevant “Daily Extract” is published and finalised.[11] Short-range forecast products for 11 August 2026 point to showers early and a mostly cloudy day, with extended-forecast temperatures around 95/83°F and a modest rainfall signal, all of which are more consistent with a warm minimum than a deep overnight drop.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.