Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement depending on the official daily minimum reading published in their Daily Extract dataset. Hong Kong's July climate sits firmly within the summer monsoon season, when overnight lows typically range between 25–27°C, though readings can occasionally dip lower depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and upper-air circulation. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the lowest temperature to fall outside whichever range this market's resolution brackets specify—most likely because the lower thresholds are set below what July meteorology typically delivers.

Historical Hong Kong Observatory data shows July daily minima rarely fall below 24°C in the urban core, though New Territories stations occasionally record slightly cooler readings. The 30-year climate normal for July's absolute minimum sits around 22–23°C, but achieving such lows in mid-July requires unusual conditions: a tropical cyclone passage, a rare cool-air advection event, or significant cloud-top radiative cooling on a calm night. The current crowd assessment reflects the rarity of extreme cooling during peak summer.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific typhoon forecast track in early July, as any system passing within 300 kilometres of Hong Kong would suppress daytime heating and potentially lower overnight minima. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts and historical comparables on their climate portal; settlement hinges entirely on their published absolute daily minimum figure, which becomes final once the Daily Extract is released following the observation period.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.