Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory’s reading on 31 July is usually anchored in a very warm July climate, so the market is mainly about whether an outlier rainband or typhoon-driven surge in cloud and rain can pull the day’s minimum far below the normal low-30s daytime pattern. The Observatory’s July climate ranking shows the month’s recorded minimum temperatures clustering in the high-20s Celsius, with 27.7°C the lowest July minimum on the published list, which underlines how unusual a sub-27°C outcome would be in a typical year.[1][2]

The main comparison for traders is 31 July 2019, when Wipha’s outer rainbands brought more than 100 mm of rain to much of Hong Kong and the Observatory’s minimum fell to 24.5°C, the lowest of that month.[3] By contrast, 31 July 2024 still began warm, with the Observatory reporting 27°C at 2 a.m. and high humidity, which is more consistent with a settled summer baseline than with a sharp cooling event.[7] With the crowd pricing only 3% for YES, the market is effectively saying that a genuine weather interruption is needed for the daily minimum to land in a notably cooler band than normal.

What matters now is the late-day and overnight weather evolution before the final daily extract is published, because the settlement source is the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Min” for the date, and the market cannot resolve until that data is finalised.[12] Traders should watch for any Observatory bulletins on tropical cyclones, heavy rain, or widespread cloud cover, since those are the main catalysts that have previously pushed July minima down.[3][15] If the evening and pre-dawn hours remain dry and humid, the result should stay closer to the usual upper-20s range already reflected in July climatology.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.