Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer climate in mid-July typically brings oppressive heat and humidity, with daily lows rarely dropping below 24–26°C even during overnight hours. The city sits in a subtropical zone where monsoon influences and urban heat island effects combine to sustain elevated minimum temperatures throughout the season. July 19th falls within the peak summer period, when atmospheric conditions favour sustained warmth rather than sharp nocturnal cooling.

Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows that July lows have clustered between 24–27°C over the past decade, with readings below 23°C exceptionally rare during this calendar window. The 0% crowd probability reflects the statistical improbability of a significant temperature dip on this specific date; such an outcome would require either an unusual cold front penetration from the north or a major weather system disruption—neither of which aligns with typical July patterns for the region. Comparable July dates show consistent overnight minimums in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius range.

Traders should monitor early-July weather patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as these remain the primary mechanisms capable of driving cooler air masses into eastern China during summer. The China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in June, will provide guidance on whether anomalous conditions are expected. Settlement relies on Wunderground's historical records from the official airport station, making data availability straightforward once the date passes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.