Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station in New York City will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a figure that will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any “YES” outcome for extreme heat. This real-world event hinges on atmospheric conditions during a period that has recently seen unprecedented heat waves across the East Coast, with LaGuardia reaching 102°F on a recent Thursday and tying its record high at 100°F on 2 July 2026[2][6].

Historical data frames how to interpret the current 0% probability: LaGuardia has broken its midnight temperature record multiple times in recent years, hitting 94°F at midnight on one occasion, surpassing the 93°F record set in 2013[2][3]. July 2026 forecasts suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F, indicating that while extreme heat is possible, the market’s dismissal of it may be overly cautious given recent trends[9]. The 70–71°F range is the frontrunner on Polymarket at 50%, followed by 72–73°F at 35%, suggesting traders expect moderate warmth rather than extremes[1].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, especially as LaGuardia’s climate normals show a maximum record of 100°F set in 1949, a threshold recently approached or exceeded[8]. Any sudden shifts in forecast models, such as those from AccuWeather predicting highs up to 99°F, could act as catalysts for market movement[9]. With the settlement window ending on 6 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, attention must focus on the final 24 hours of data collection to confirm whether the day’s peak temperature aligns with recent heat wave patterns or reverts to seasonal averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.