Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by the Beijing Capital International Airport Station reading on the day, with settlement based on the daily peak recorded in Celsius. July is normally Beijing’s hottest month, and late-July highs often sit in the low-30s Celsius, with published July climatology for the city showing typical daytime maxima around 31–33°C and occasional spikes into the mid- to upper-30s.[1][6][13]

Comparable late-July patterns suggest the market should be read as a question about whether Beijing can reach an above-average heat peak rather than a routine summer high. Public forecast tables around 30–31 July have shown Beijing with maxima around 31°C to 36°C and weather ranging from thunderstorms to rain, which is enough to cap extreme heat if cloud cover or precipitation arrives on the day.[4][9] That helps explain why a 0% crowd-implied chance on the top-end outcome is plausible if traders expect the airport station to stay below the hotter historical tail of the distribution.[2][5][13]

The main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, any shift in rain or thunderstorm timing, and whether overnight heating or afternoon sun can lift the airport reading before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. Beijing’s official-style forecast feeds in recent days have already pointed to rain or thunderstorms for 31 July, with maximum temperatures near 31°C, so any upgrade or downgrade to cloud, wind, or precipitation coverage could move the likely terminal temperature range quickly.[4][9] Reuters also noted in early July that severe storms were testing China’s weather resilience, underscoring how quickly rainfall patterns can disrupt hot-day outcomes in northern China.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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