Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid is currently experiencing an intense heatwave that has pushed temperatures well above seasonal averages, with recent days in early July seeing highs of 42°C at regional sites. This extreme thermal activity frames the 0% crowd-implied probability for the July 12 market, as historical data shows Madrid’s average July high is 35°C (95°F), yet the 2026 season has already delivered record-breaking figures including 40.5°C in Barcelona on 8 July [2][4]. The first half of 2026 was Spain’s hottest ever recorded, with temperatures 1.6°C above normal, suggesting the atmosphere remains primed for another peak rather than a cool anomaly [9].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground report for Barajas Airport specifically, as the market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at that station alone, not regional peaks. While the heatwave is forecast to persist above 40°C until at least 7 July, the key dependency is whether the scorching conditions extend through 12 July without a cooling front [2]. No official heatwave declaration has been issued for 12 July yet, but the absence of rainfall and clear skies in the regional outlook increases the likelihood of another record day [2]. Watch for any sudden meteorological updates from AEMET regarding cloud cover or wind shifts that could moderate Barajas temperatures before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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