Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s peak heat on 16 July 2026 hinges on whether the city breaks its typical midsummer ceiling at the Haneda Airport station, where temperatures usually climb between 31°C and 35°C. Historical data shows July 16 has frequently recorded highs of 33°C or 34°C in recent years, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range appear misaligned with seasonal norms. For instance, in 2023 and 2024, Tokyo hit 33°C and 34°C respectively on this date, suggesting traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a warm spell driven by the Pacific high-pressure system.

Key catalysts include the daily 6 AM release of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecast for the Kanto region, which often adjusts temperature projections based on cloud cover and wind patterns. A sudden shift in the subtropical ridge could push Haneda’s reading above 34°C, while increased marine fog might cap it near 31°C. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Haneda station, as discrepancies between forecast models and observed conditions can trigger rapid probability swings. Recent analysis from the Meteorological Society of Japan notes that July 2026 has seen above-average heat domes, increasing the risk of record-breaking highs in urban stations like Haneda.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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