Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-3.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-3.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-3.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BMB (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-9.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-9.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
BASEMENT BOYS face INOX Division in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 playoffs, with the match window set for 16 August and a scheduled start around late morning Eastern time. The crowd line at 100% YES leaves little room for uncertainty, so any pre-match drift would usually require a late scratch, a schedule slip, or a bracket change rather than a routine form read.
On recent results, INOX Division arrive with the cleaner paper trail: a run of wins in June and a strong showing in earlier knockout play, including a 2-0 over MOUZ NXT and a tight three-map win over ex-RUBY in the same broader event cycle. BASEMENT BOYS were active on 15 August in the same playoff bracket, which suggests limited rest and a compressed turnaround into this semi-final; that kind of scheduling can matter in BO3s where veto preparation and map stamina often decide close series.
The main catalysts to watch are official start-time confirmation, any bracket reseeding or rescheduling, and whether either side enters with the same five-man line-up from the previous round. If the match is delayed beyond the settlement window, or if a cancellation is announced, the market mechanics would become the key factor rather than the game state itself.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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