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Worlds 2026: Winner

How the prediction market is pricing "Worlds 2026: Winner" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Team G 50% Team H 50% Team I 50% Other 50% Volume: $99K Liquidity: $279K Closes: 29 Nov 2026
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Worlds 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Team G50%
Team H50%
Team I50%
Other50%
Gen.G35%
Bilibili Gaming20%
T118%
Hanwha Life Esports16%
G2 Esports6%
Karmine Corp5%
Dplus KIA3%
Anyone's Legend3%
Top Esports2%
Invictus Gaming2%
Team Secret Whales0%
CTBC Flying Oyster0%
MVK Esports0%
Movistar KOI0%
Cloud90%
Team Liquid0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, worlds 2026: winner stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026), currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026. If this t…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Worlds 2026: Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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