Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: raul brancaccio vs thiago seyboth wild. This market refers to the tennis match between Raul Brancaccio and Thiago Seyboth Wild in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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