Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 56% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to mexico vs. england - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. England - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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