Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs 100 Thieves (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs 100 Thieves (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 54% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 23% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: 100 thieves vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup group a. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Th…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports… on World Cup 2026 Favorites
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