Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 80% |
| O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | 59% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 5% |
| NRFI | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Chicago White Sox arrive after back-to-back wins over Detroit, taking the last two meetings 9-5 and 4-3, which pulls a 48% crowd price towards a near coin flip rather than a clear favourite. Chicago’s recent head-to-head edge matters because these teams have just shown a narrow margin between them, and the Tigers’ overall season record has still been better, with Detroit around 60-62 and Chicago around 63-58 across the run of the series.
The current injury board is the main swing factor. Detroit remain without Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling and James Outman, while also carrying longer-term pitching absences such as Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and Reese Olson; that leaves the lineup thinner than usual and the bullpen less intact. Chicago’s list is shorter in terms of impact bats but still includes Joey Bart and Kyle Teel, with Davis Martin and Chris Murphy also out, so run prevention and catching depth remain the obvious pressure points.
Probable starters also frame the market: Chicago are listed with Sean Burke, 7-6 with a 2.99 ERA, against Detroit’s Drew Anderson, 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA. If that pairing holds, the White Sox have the cleaner starting-pitching case; any late change to the rotation, or a surprise scratch in Detroit’s already depleted outfield, would matter more than usual to a market sitting close to even.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $296K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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