Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| July 9 | 59% |
| July 14 | 15% |
| July 8 | 6% |
| July 10 | 5% |
| July 7 | 4% |
| July 28 | 4% |
| July 16 | 3% |
| July 23 | 3% |
| July 13 | 2% |
| Not released before August | 2% |
| July 11 | 1% |
| July 12 | 1% |
| July 15 | 1% |
| July 19 | 1% |
| July 22 | 1% |
| July 24 | 1% |
| June 24 or earlier | 0% |
| June 25 | 0% |
| June 26 | 0% |
| June 27 | 0% |
| June 28 | 0% |
| June 29 | 0% |
| June 30 | 0% |
| July 1 | 0% |
| July 2 | 0% |
| July 3 | 0% |
| July 4 | 0% |
| July 5 | 0% |
| July 6 | 0% |
| July 17 | 0% |
| July 18 | 0% |
| July 20 | 0% |
| July 21 | 0% |
| July 25 | 0% |
| July 26 | 0% |
| July 27 | 0% |
| July 29 | 0% |
| July 30 | 0% |
| July 31 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 59% YES probability for GPT-5.6 released on 2026?. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for GPT-5.6 released on 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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