🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
Skip to main content
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak

How the prediction market is pricing "Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Completed Match 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 9.5 100% Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 10.5 100% Volume: $117K Closes: 5 Oct 2026
Open live market →
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Completed Match100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 O/U 10.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set Handicap +/-1.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Game Spread +/-1.5100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 1 Winner0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 2 Winner0%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Total Sets: O/U 2.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 2 O/U 8.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Match O/U 21.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Match O/U 22.50%
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak Match O/U 23.50%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak. This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Kamil Majchrzak in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. Thi…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Kamil Majchrzak. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

Trade Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Lore… on World Cup 2026 Favorites

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related Topics

Tennis Prediction Markets