Highest temperature in Chicago on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chicago’s 9 August heat settled into a fairly ordinary late-summer pattern rather than anything extreme, with the National Weather Service’s Chicago-area climate product showing an 84°F maximum and Weather Underground’s daily history for the city also pointing to an 85°F high for the date. Chicago’s long-run August normal high is a touch above 83°F, and the 9 August record sits far higher at 97°F, so the realised outcome landed close to seasonal expectations rather than anywhere near a record-chasing setup.[1][4][15][7]

That framing explains why the market’s 0% YES view is unsurprising only if traders are effectively pricing a higher bin than the one that appears to have printed. Weather Underground’s Chicago history page shows the difference between the summary “Day High & Low” and the intraday “Daily Observations” table, and this contract resolves from the latter for Chicago O’Hare Intl Airport, not from the summary box, so the exact published observation sequence matters more than the headline figure.[17][6][14] The key trading catalyst is the final observation for 9 August and the publication of the first datapoint for 10 August, because the market rules say later revisions before that cut-off count, but changes afterwards do not.[6][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chicago on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.