Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to the temperature range containing that peak, with data finalised in the Observatory’s Daily Extract. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the outcome will fall outside the specified range, likely due to expectations of extreme heat pushing the reading into a higher bracket.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with 2023 setting a record average of 30.3°C and 25 hot nights, breaking 11 records since 1884[1]. The highest monthly maximum ever recorded is 35.7°C[7], and recent daily highs in early July 2026 reached 92.1°F (33.4°C)[6]. Given this pattern, a 0% probability implies the market expects temperatures to exceed the upper bound of the range, not fall below it.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract for 4 July, which will publish the Absolute Daily Max once finalized[4]. Watch for updates on tropical cyclone activity or monsoon surges, which can suppress peak temperatures, as well as forecasts from AccuWeather indicating daily highs between 86°F and 96°F (30–35.6°C)[2]. Any deviation from the expected 33–35°C range could shift the probability significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.