Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is set to face typical midsummer heat on 6 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory expected to record a daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests the market is either awaiting final data or has not yet settled on a definitive range, despite strong seasonal signals pointing to high temperatures.

Historical July data frames this event clearly: the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily highs between 30°C and 35°C during this period, with 32°C being a frequent peak. Polymarket traders currently see 30–32°C as the most probable range, leading with 32°C at 41% and 31°C as the next contender [6]. The long-term trend confirms rising temperatures, with July–September 2026 forecast to be normal to above-normal, increasing the likelihood of above-average highs [4].

Traders must monitor the official release of the “Daily Extract” from the Hong Kong Observatory, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once data is verified [9]. No weather announcements or schedule changes are expected to alter the outcome, but the timing of the data publication is critical. The settlement window ends 2026-07-06T12:00:00Z, so any delay in the extract could impact resolution [9]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather support daily highs of 86–93°F (30–34°C), reinforcing the 30–32°C range as the most credible [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.